000
AXNT20 KNHC 092234
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N21W 3N32W 1N43W 1N51W. 
CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING ACROSS SW 
AFRICA FROM 6N-10N E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE 
1N3W-3N8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 8W-28W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 
30W-55W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W FROM THE W ATLC IS ALONG THE 
NE GULF COAST STATES FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO PENSACOLA 
FLORIDA...GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY TO INLAND OVER W 
ALABAMA. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES GIVING THE GULF SW TO W 
UPPER FLOW. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE OVER 
MEXICO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN 
INLAND OVER MEXICO. IN SPITE OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER 
THE GULF...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND 
VIRTUALLY SHOWER FREE.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT 
AND WILL THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE FIRES 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF SMOKE IN THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA 
NEAR 10N81W NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE UNITED 
STATES. THIS IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND 
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
COLOMBIA THROUGH NICARAGUA. UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVING INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W. AFTERNOON HEAT 
INDUCED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ARE 
BEGINNING TO DIE OUT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS N OF 26N WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N69W TO A 
WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N78W CONTINUING W OVER FLORIDA 
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 13N BETWEEN 45W-65W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N29W ALONG 28N41W TO A 1016 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 28N52W THEN SW TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 
19N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 20N-25N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH 
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N38W. AN UPPER E/W RIDGE 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N.  

$$
WALLACE