000 AXNT20 KNHC 091755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N25W 3N40W 3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 1W-10W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-25W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 54W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 30N80W 30N84W 31N86W. A SMALL BAND OF PREFRONTAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS NOW ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. 10-15 KT SLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT THE NE CORNER...AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN HELPED CLEAR SMOKE FROM THESE AREAS. FIRES ARE STILL ACTIVE OVER CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N AND W OF 90W. SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA TO SLIP SE TO THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...W CUBA W OF 80W HAS NUMEROUS FIRES FEEDING SMOKE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND E OF 67W. ELSEWHERE...A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN N COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N E OF 70W. EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN ...AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MAINTAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 30N76W 30N80W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT NEAR 30N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 73W-78W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N58W 23N70W. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 21N55W 17N65W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N30W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLANTIC N OF 8N BETWEEN 10W-50W. ELY FLOW IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N. AS OF 0900Z... A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-70W...THEN CONTINUES WSW ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA JUST S OF ST. AUGUSTINE AND CONTINUING ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N34W. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO. LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 25W-40W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N40W SW TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N52W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD. ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE SEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND MAINLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. $$ FORMOSA