000 AXNT20 KNHC 091053 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N25W 3N40W 3N50W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 120 NM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AXIS EAST OF 28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 37W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...COLD/STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC REMAINS ALONG NORTH FLORIDA...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF AND WEST FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF NORTH OF 24N INTO THE STATE OF FLORIDA. HIGH CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING OFF OVER S MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS ALMOST SHOWER FREE. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 64-65W. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES. AN OLD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS STILL GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE. A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS WELL AS OVER EL SALVADOR IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS TSTM ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N. AS OF 0900Z... A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-70W...THEN CONTINUES WSW ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA JUST S OF ST. AUGUSTINE AND CONTINUING ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N34W. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO. LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 25W-40W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N40W SW TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N52W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD. ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE SEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND MAINLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. $$ GR