000
AXNT20 KNHC 090549
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 3N52W. A CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NW INLAND AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 14W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN FROM 
1.5N-4N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM 
SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 16W-20W...FROM THE ITCZ AXIS N TO 7N 
BETWEEN 22W-26W AND WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST 
OF 44W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W FROM THE W 
ATLC IS ALONG NORTH FLORIDA...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS...MAINLY ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS 
ARE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE 
EPAC ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF NORTH OF 25N INTO THE 
STATE OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING N OVER S MEXICO IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH CLOUDINESS 
FROM THIS TSTM ACTIVITY IS STREAMING OFF OVER MEXICO INTO THE SW 
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS ALMOST SHOWER FREE.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN.  AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A WEAK 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 64W. UPPER TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N 
OF 16N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO TO E CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA. DRY 
UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SAME AREA. AN OLD 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS STILL GENERATING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM OVER PUERTO RICO...THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A SUBTROPICAL 
JET OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALSO PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUDS 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PARTICULARLY FROM 
13N-16N. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA AS WELL AS ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N. AS OF 0300Z... 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-70W...THEN 
CONTINUES WSW ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE AND 
CONTINUING ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC 
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N37W. A 
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 25W-40W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N45W SW 
TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE LOW. ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES 
THE TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ARE 
SEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND MAINLY OVER THE 
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.    

$$
GR