000
AXNT20 KNHC 082331
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT MON MAY 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N30W 3N51W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS MOVING NW INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 13W TO JUST OVER SW 
GUINEA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA AND THE 
ITCZ AXIS E OF 22W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-43W...FROM THE ITCZ AXIS N TO 7N BETWEEN 
43W-51W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 
51W-57W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W FROM THE W ATLC IS ALONG THE 
NE GULF COAST STATES FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO MOBILE 
ALABAMA...GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST W OF TALLAHASSEE INTO THE W ATLC. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL N GULF COAST N OF 
28N FROM JUST W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 
ATCHAFALAYA BAY. THE GULF FOR THE MOST PART IS UNDER A BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES GIVING 
THE GULF SW TO W UPPER FLOW. TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING N OVER 
S MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF FROM VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN. CUBA HAS 
NUMEROUS FIRES FEEDING SMOKE INTO THE SE GULF TO S OF THE 
FLORIDA KEYS E OF 85W. IN SPITE OF SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
OVER THE GULF...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS SHOWER 
FREE.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT 
INTO TUE. THE FIRES OF W CUBA ARE PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 
SMOKE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH N BETWEEN 
80W-85W...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SMOKE IS MOVING N OVER THE SE GULF 
OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA 
NEAR 10N81W NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE UNITED 
STATES. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N FROM NW VENEZUELA TO OVER NICARAGUA. 
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE N 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO TO E CUBA 
INCLUDING JAMAICA. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE SAME AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO 
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER JET 
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC ARE GENERATING OVERCAST CLOUDS AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-18N E OF 65W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N WITH THE UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA INTO THE N CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA THROUGH 
32N75W TO JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE CONTINUING ALONG THE N GULF 
COAST STATES. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS S OF BERMUDA NEAR 27N65W. 
A LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 28W-53W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N40W SW 
TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 24N-30N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N 
OF 15N E OF 40W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWERS FREE. AN UPPER 
E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N.  

$$
WALLACE