000
AXNT20 KNHC 081056
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 2N40W 1N51W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 8N16W 
2N11W LINE AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 3N11W 4N4W LINE. 
FURTHER WEST SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N28W 1N33W LINE. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
GUATEMALA AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
NORTHWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 24N90W INTO WESTERN 
ALABAMA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 5N TO 
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 75W AND ABOUT 105W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...E TEXAS...AND 
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER E 
GEORGIA WITH A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN 
MISSISSIPPI TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW 
OVER MEXICO WITH A 1002 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N100W. VISIBLE 
IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY INDICATES SMOKE ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO EXCEPT THE NE PART.

ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W AND 75W AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THIS AREA N 
OF ABOUT 18N WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 
32N56W TO 25N64W TO 18N75W. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS 
ITS AXIS ALONG 58W AND IS MOVING E ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A JET 
EXTENDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 15N75W THROUGH 18N64W 
TO 25N45W. WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THE 
JET A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 10N55W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM NEAR 
THE EQUATOR TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. AT THE SURFACE A 
LINGERING TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 31N40W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 
25N51W TO 19N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 
31.5N61W WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC E OF 45W...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N. A 
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED 
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N35W...MOVING E ABOUT 20 KNOTS. 
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 28N36W. A 1022 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N24W WITH A RIDGE TO 24N46W.

$$
CAB