000
AXNT20 KNHC 071104
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N25W 2N32W 3N40W 2N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N11W 
6N16W 4N21W LINE...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N26W 1N36W 
LINE...AND FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE 
VICINITY OF 16N94W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION 
NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF 
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. A MIDDLE/ 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NE GULF HAS 
MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... 
MOVING E 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH E CENTRAL CUBA TO 
NEAR 15N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. A SUBTROPICAL 
JET CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COSTA 
RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO 16N75W TO BEYOND 24N56W. SW WINDS ARE 
STRONGEST OVER/NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 
60-70 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS 
THE SE CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 13.5N78.5W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N67W ACROSS E CENTRAL CUBA. A 
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N68W AND 
MOVING E ABOUT 20 KNOTS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 46W 
AND 60W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N56W 
TO 20N57W TO 32N56W. FURTHER TO THE EAST A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 38W N OF 20N. A WEAK CYCLONIC 
VORTEX IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 25N37W...MOVING ENE 
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED ALONG 28W N OF 20N 
AND A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N8W TO 18N25W. MODERATE WESTERLIES 
ARE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 8N TO 12N E OF 50W INTO AFRICA. 
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N43W TO A 1013 MB 
LOW NEAR 23N54W TO NEAR 18N60W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
26.5N62.5W.

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CAB