000
AXNT20 KNHC 070549
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N22W 1N35W 1N50W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 6.5N11.5W 3.5N10W LINE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
6N13.5W 5N17W LINE...WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 3N25W...WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A 3N27W 2N31W LINE...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N 
BETWEEN 39W AND 44W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N45W 
1S48W LINE. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM 
RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 480 NM E OF THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NE 
GULF WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 86W. THIS FEATURE IS AIDING 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA. SCATTERED/BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE 
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO 
NEAR 14N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. A SUBTROPICAL 
JET CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COSTA 
RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO 15N75W TO BEYOND 22N63W. SW WINDS ARE 
STRONGEST OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 60-70 
KNOT RANGE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. A 
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N70W AND 
MOVING E ABOUT 20 KNOTS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 48W 
AND 62W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N57W 
TO 20N58W TO 32N58W. FURTHER TO THE EAST A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 39W N OF 20N. A WEAK CYCLONIC 
VORTEX IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 24N39W...MOVING ENE 
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED ALONG 30W N OF 20N 
AND A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N10W TO 20N25W. AT THE SURFACE A 
TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N45W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N56W TO 
A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 17.5N61W.

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CAB