000 AXNT20 KNHC 070016 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 5W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 30N80W 31N87W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS COASTS FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 92W-95W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W AND S OF THE FRONT HAS LIGHT SLY FLOW. THE W GULF W OF 90W HAS CONTINUED 10-15 KT SELY FLOW. SMOKE IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-100W DUE TO FIRES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N96W. NW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT THE N GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-93W WHERE MOISTURE IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 65W-82W. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW ON THE TROUGH IS CENTERED NE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N96W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST E OF TRINIDAD NEAR 11N60W. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF THE LINE FROM SW HISPANIOLA TO S NICARAGUA. MOISTURE AND A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N69W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 24N55W 18N60W 13N62W. AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N55W WHILE ANOTHER EMBEDDED LOW IS NE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR TRINIDAD AT 11N60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-80W. A TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM S AMERICA TO W AFRICA ALONG 10N60W 14N16W. $$ FORMOSA