000
AXNT20 KNHC 061750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W 1N46W. A 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT 
OF AFRICA AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-6N 
BETWEEN 15W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 15O NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 35W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL 
WATERS...THEN CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. 
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SQUALL LINE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF FROM 27N-30N 
BETWEEN 91W-95W. THIS TSTM ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THERE IS 
A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE HIGH 
ALONG WITH A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO ARE PRODUCING 
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF THE NW QUADRANT...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS 
ALMOST RAIN FREE DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. A 
WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
NEAR-COASTAL RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OUT OF THE 
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FROM 50 TO 70 KT.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS GENERATING TRADE WINDS OF 
15-20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN.  THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING 
DOWN FROM THE ATLANTIC IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 
MARTINIQUE ISLAND. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM MARTINIQUE ALL THE WAY 
NORTH TO ANGUILLA...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCING 
RAINFALL IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL 
WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.  HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS STREAMING OFF TO THE 
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE 
TO AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ISLANDS. 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
BASIN WHILE MAINLY SWLY WINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 
HOURS OR SO.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ATLANTIC 
TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 31N46W TO THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 
24N55W...THE CONTINUES DOWN TO MARTINIQUE ISLAND IN THE LESSER 
ANTILLES. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROUGH SOUTH OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF 
THE TROUGH NORTH OF 27N. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH AND MAINLY 
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE 
EASTERN ATLC FROM A 1028 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR TO 18N53W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE 
AREA. A TROUGH IS N OF 25N ALONG 50W. A TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM NEAR SOUTH AMERICA 
TO WEST AFRICA ALONG 8N50W TO 17N15W.       

$$
GR