000
AXNT20 KNHC 061059
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 8N13W TO 2S33W TO THE NORTH 
COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE ITCZ AXIS WEST 
OF 28W TO SOUTH AMERICA.  A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N17W TO 
3N9W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 4N1E TO 2N2W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF.  THE HIGH ALONG WITH A NNW-SSE ELONGATED LOW OVER 
MEXICO AND TEXAS ARE PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 
KT IN THE WESTERN GULF.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG  
THE US GULF COAST.  A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND 
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF ... BUT MOST OF 
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS 
REMAINING INLAND.  NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF IS RAIN FREE CURRENTLY 
... AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION.  A WEAK LOW IS 
PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US GULF COAST ALONG THE FRONT 
OVER THE NEXT DAY ... WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
NEAR-COASTAL RAINFALL.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OUT OF THE 
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FROM 60 TO 100 KT.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND NEAR EQUATORIAL 
LOW PRESSURE ARE PRODUCING EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 
UP TO 20 KT ... BUT GENERALLY WEAKER.  THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH 
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE ATLANTIC IS IMPINGING UPON THE 
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  WHILE THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD 
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ... IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCING 
RAINFALL IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY OBSERVED CURRENTLY 
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLUMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.  HIGH 
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS 
STREAMING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST 
CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 
9N53W.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER 
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 70 KT OVER THE 
GREATER ANTILLES.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N71W ... WHICH 
IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE.  AN EXTENDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 25N52W 16N61W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 
25N.  NO OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE OCCURRING IN 
THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EAST 
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N25W.  A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 18N53W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 58W-68W.  A TROUGH 
IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-55W.  MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS 
FOUND NORTH OF 12N WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF 80-90 KT BETWEEN 20 
AND 30N.  A TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM NEAR SOUTH AMERICA TO WEST AFRICA ALONG 
8N42W TO 17N16W.       

$$
CWL