000
AXNT20 KNHC 060609
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 8N13W TO EQ32W TO THE NORTH 
COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE ITCZ AXIS WEST 
OF 25W TO SOUTH AMERICA.  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ... 
LIKELY A SQUALL LINE ... PASSED THROUGH SIERRA LEON AND LIBERIA 
A FEW HOURS AGO AND IS NOW AFFECTING THE WATERS WITHIN 150 NM OF 
THE WEST AFRICAN COAST.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN 
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6N3E TO 2N2W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF.  THE HIGH ALONG WITH TWO LOWS OVER MEXICO AND 
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO ARE PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 
KT IN THE WESTERN GULF.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST 
NORTH OF THE US GULF COAST ... BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS REMAINING INLAND.  
NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF IS RAIN FREE CURRENTLY ... AS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION.  A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE 
EASTWARD ALONG THE US GULF COAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 
DAY ... WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR-COASTAL 
RAINFALL.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 
WEST-NORTHWEST FROM 60 TO 90 KT.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND NEAR EQUATORIAL 
LOW PRESSURE ARE PRODUCING EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 
UP TO 20 KT ... BUT GENERALLY WEAKER.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE 
COASTAL WATERS OF COLUMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.  HIGH CLOUDINESS 
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS STREAMING OFF 
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN 
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 10N55W.  UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN AND OUT OF THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE 
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 70 KT OVER THE 
GREATER ANTILLES.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA NEAR 
25N78W.  AN EXTENDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
ALONG 32N49W 30N49W 25N54W 17N61W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 25N.  NO OTHER AREAS 
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE OCCURRING IN THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH 
ATLANTIC.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC S OF THE AZORES 
NEAR 34N25W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 
20N50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-75W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  
MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS FOUND NORTH OF 12N WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OF 80-90 KT BETWEEN 20 AND 30N.  A TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM NEAR SOUTH AMERICA 
TO WEST AFRICA ALONG 6N48W TO 17N16W.       

$$
CWL