000 AXNT20 KNHC 060009 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 7N-11N MOVING W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 23W-36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED GOING AROUND THE HIGH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER THE N GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 83W-93W. ELSEWHERE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...S MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N AND W OF 88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WNW FLOW TRAVERSES THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE OVER MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT NEAR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT... THE FRONT TO STAY OVER THE N GULF STATES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION. FIRES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE STILL PRODUCING NEW SMOKE THUS CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N59W 16N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH N OF GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 68W-71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WSW FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 10N58W. BANDS OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA. THE ABC ISLANDS MAY ALSO GET SOME CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. A LONG SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N49W 28N50W 20N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N25W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 20N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 65W-80W. A TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 10N58W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-80W. A TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM S AMERICA TO W AFRICA ALONG 4N50W 18N10W. $$ FORMOSA