000 AXNT20 KNHC 051716 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS PERSISTING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS HAVE FIRED BETWEEN 6E-10W FROM 1N-5N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE...OTHERWISE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF NAPLES. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE S EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER WHERE LIGHT WLY ARE FOUND. STRONGER WINDS...NEAR 15 KT ARE OBSERVED IN THE EXTREME NW PORTION NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS. A FEW OBSERVATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE REPORTED SMOKE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND BASED UPON SATELLITE IMAGERY THE S RETURN FLOW HAS CARRIED SOME OF THE SMOKE INTO THE GULF CURRENTLY W OF 88W S OF 26N. THE WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO THE ATLC AND WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE U.S. BEGINS TO MOVE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL DIG FAR TO THE S PREDICTING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL TO BE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD NEARLY STATIONARY TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED E OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N59W GENERATING A WIDE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS DRIVEN NWD FROM CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND HAS SPREAD TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT LIES ABOVE THE W PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SFC...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL ATLC SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS THRU THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A PATCH OF THICK CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-EXISTING SFC TROUGH IS S OF HAITI TO NEAR 15N78W. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE NNE OF THE AREA BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THE TAIL END OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY SUN. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FOUND NEAR 39N63W NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. S OF THE UPPER LOW GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES EXIST W OF 50W. THERE IS SOME GENTLE RIDGING ALONG 77W AND SLIGHT TROUGHING ALONG 58W N OF 26N. AN AREA OF ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXTENDS FROM 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 54W-73W. A WELL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS WEEK...LIES ALONG 35N49W 24N59W 15N63W. SFC FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN 250 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N WITH MOISTURE MORE DIFFUSE S OF THERE. FARTHER EAST...A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE PRES PATTERN IN THE E ATLC WITH A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N27W. SFC RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE HIGH SWWARD ALONG 27N40W 20N50W AND SEWARD FROM THE HIGH ALONG 28N18W 18N13W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. EXCESS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH IS SPILLING OVER THE SFC RIDGE W OF 42W N OF 24N. A TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS ALONG 7N45W 14N25W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 20N16W AND THEN INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST WITHIN 175 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. $$ CANGIALOSI