000
AXNT20 KNHC 050608
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 8N12W TO 1N25W TO EQ50W 
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL.  THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 16W AND 33W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND SOUTH OF 
THE ITCZ IN THE GULF OF GUINEA BOUNDED BY 2-5N AND 15W-10E.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE ITCZ IN A LARGER REGION FROM THE EQUATOR UP TO 4N. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A WEAK 1017 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF ... PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS IN 
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF.  WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS 
OF UP TO 15 KT OCCUR IN THE WESTERN GULF.  SOME SHOWERS MOVED 
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND 
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO EARLIER IN THE EVENING ... THOUGH THESE HAVE 
SUBSIDED IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS LEAVING PRIMARILY UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS WINDS ARE WESTERLY FROM 40 TO 
70 KT ACROSS THE GULF.  A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS 
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW 
MORNING THOUGH IT APPEARS NOT VERY LIKELY THAT THIS WILL CAUSE 
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPTATION.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF AT MOST 15 KT ARE 
FOUND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  
A TROUGH WAS FOUND IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ... AN EXTENSION 
OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC ... THOUGH THIS 
TROUGH WAS NO LONGER PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. SOME 
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF PANAMA AND 
COLUMBIA ... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WAS NEARLY RAIN 
FREE.  WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF UP TO 50 KT WAS FOUND 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS DECREASING SOUTHWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE WAS 
FOUND OVER SOUTH AMERICAN AROUND 8N.  HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS BEING 
ADVECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO CONTINENTAL 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND NORTHEAST OF 
BERMUDA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE 
EAST.  AT THE SURFACE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FOUND FROM 
32N47W TO 26N54W AND AN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED 
AS A TROUGH DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.  MODERATE SHOWER 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT AND 
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH TO 23N.  ELSEWHERE THE 
ATLANTIC HAS NO SIGNFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING.  A 
MODERATE 1027 MB HIGH AT 32N29W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY 
OVER THE NTEXT DAY ... HELPING TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST TO 
EASTNORTHEAST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICAL 
NORTH ATLANTIC.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ZONAL WESTERLY AWAY FROM 
THE DEEP LAYER LOW WITH WINDS 50 TO 90 KT WEAKENING CLOSER TO 
THE EQUATOR.

$$
CWL