000 AXNT20 KNHC 041052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 30W...AND EVENTUALLY CONTINUING TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3S TO 2N BETWEEN 33W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD AND GRADUAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE 04/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 31N/32N IN TEXAS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND EAST OF A DRY LINE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD FROM INTERIOR MEXICO REACHING 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND IN MOST OF THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 23N69W...TO A BAHAMAS 1018 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 25N77W...TO A 1018 MB EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N84W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 57W. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH WHICH STILL SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WHICH NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N55W 25N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N57W TO 20N63W...OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS TO 16N65W...ABOUT 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N54W 20N61W TO 16N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N53W BEYOND 32N47W. THIS PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE SAME FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AREA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS EASTWARD UNTIL THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EITHER EXITS THE REGION OR JUST DISSIPATES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY- TO-WESTERLY FLOW...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTWARD. THIS FLOW REGIME IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS PUSHING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD TO 20N ACROSS AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND/OR DISSIPATED. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 57W. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH WHICH STILL SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WHICH NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N55W 25N57W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N57W TO 20N63W...OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS TO 16N65W ABOUT 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N54W 20N61W TO 16N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N53W BEYOND 32N47W. THIS PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE SAME FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AREA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS EASTWARD UNTIL THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EITHER EXITS THE REGION OR JUST DISSIPATES. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N47W TO 22N56W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 11N40W TO 17N34W TO NORTHERN MOROCCO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/ TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 31N34W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 6N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 50W. $$ MT