000
AXNT20 KNHC 031658
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N18W EQ30W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 225 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS W OF 30W TO INLAND OVER BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. A 
POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N S OF 7N PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 14W-19W FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 5N. A FEW PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE 
COAST OF AFRICA FROM THE EQ TO 5N BETWEEN 4E-10W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. 
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC INTO THE 
AREA S OF 26N. N OF 26N...DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES. AT THE 
SFC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE E GULF NEAR 29N85W 
GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF N OF 26N DUE TO 
SUBSIDENCE. A PATCH OF THICK MULTILAYER CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY A 
FEW SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 
21N-24N BETWEEN 83W-88W.  A DRY LINE STILL RUNS FROM N MEXICO TO 
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THRU THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY SAGS SEWARD. THE 
NEXT ORGANIZED CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FROM A COLD FRONT WHICH 
WILL LIKELY ENTER THE N GULF THIS WEEKEND.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SE OF 
THE AREA KEEPING THE CARIBBEAN WITH SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW. 
BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NWD FROM CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY OVER S AMERICA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL 
RIDGE STAYING CONTAINED S OF 18N. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS 
BREAKING UP AND THINNING AS IT TRAVELS EWD DUE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST CLUSTER OF 
CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 68W-71W WHERE 
CLOUD TOPS ARE NEAR -80 C. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS MOVED OVER 
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM 
THE EPAC. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IS S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
ALONG 75W FROM 14N-18N ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS. A 1014 MB LOW FORMED THIS MORNING 
JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N65W. THIS LOW SITS ON A SFC 
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SAN JUAN DOPPLER 
RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH 
POSSIBLY A FEW MESOSCALE LOWS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ISLAND. THE 
DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HUNDRED NM TO THE N OF 
THE ISLAND.  TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY TO 15-20 
KT AS SFC HIGH PRES DIGS SWD IN THE GULF. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE 
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY 
PRESS SLOWLY SEWD BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY TO 
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU FRIDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE ATLC BASIN. 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 34N62W SWD TO 28N69W. A 
SWLY JET RUNS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 25N62W TO 
BEYOND 32N54W. ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY UPPER LEVEL 
CONFLUENCE LIES TO THE W OF THIS AXIS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N54W 24N58W THEN AS A SFC TROUGH TO THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS. A 1014 MB LOW SITS ON THE TROUGH NEAR 19N65W. 
THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEEN CRAWLING OVER THE PAST 
FEW DAYS AND COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY THRU FRI. BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 350 NM TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT AND 
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. A MID-UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 
8N48W ALONG 22N45W 32N40W. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 31N38W. GLOBAL MODELS ANTICIPATE THIS HIGH TO MOVE 
SLOWLY NEWARD CONTINUING TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE EASTERN ATLC THRU FRI.  A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N24W TO 14N39W. A SWLY JET RUNS ON THE 
SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 13N35W TO 25N15W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 150 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS WITH 
ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE TO THE LEFT OF THE JET.

$$
CANGIALOSI