000 AXNT20 KNHC 031056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 7N8W 3N15W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N EAST OF 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W...FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 36W AND 47W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD AND GRADUAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE 03/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND NORTH OF 25N/26N. PRETTY MUCH ALL THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TEXAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE LOST THEIR POWER. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT. A DRY LINE STILL RUNS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N84W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTWARD. THIS FLOW REGIME IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS PUSHING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR NORTH AS 17N...ACROSS AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE RANGE FROM -80C TO -85C AT THIS TIME AND THE HEIGHTS OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE EASILY 50000 FEET OR HIGHER. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 8.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO TO THE WEST AND TO THE NORTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING SOME OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS PART OF VENEZUELA HAVE BEEN EASTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOOTING OVER THE TOP...IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N73W 16N74W 14N74W FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI SOUTHWARD. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 57W. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH WHICH STILL SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WHICH GOES FROM A 33N53W TRIPLE POINT TO 30N54W TO 24N60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N60W TO 20N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N61W 20N64W 16N66W. THIS PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE SAME FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AREA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS EASTWARD UNTIL THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EITHER EXITS THE REGION OR JUST DISSIPATES. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 48W/49W NORTH OF 20N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 14N39W TO 20N33W 29N24W AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL JET STREAM RUNS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. $$ MT