000 AXNT20 KNHC 022354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W. F SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 150 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS E OF 20W...AND WITHIN 150-200 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-40W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN INLAND OVER SW AFRICA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 12W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING SUB-TROPICAL JET. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF...MAINLY SOUTH OF 25N. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE SW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N-84W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND E/SE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING ALSO THE STATE OF FLORIDA. SFC RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH THRU THE GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST THE BASIN...WHILE THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NWD FROM CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE STAYING S OF 17N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ELSEWHERE. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED S OF HAITI ALONG 74W FROM 14N-18W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING ATLC COLD FRONT INTO NE PUERTO RICO. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ONCE AGAIN...THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ISLANDS. ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCES...THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AREA OVER VENEZUELA EAST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN. A RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC...WHILE ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N-15W. A JETSTREAM OF 90-130 KT IS SE OF THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 19N-31W TO INLAND IN WESTERN AFRICA NEAR 29N-10W. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH TWO EMBEDDED CENTERS COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC W OF 60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO 16N35W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA . A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N55W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 23N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT INTO NE PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND E OF THE FRONT FROM 25N-30W BETWEEN 52W-55W. A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALL THE WAY E AND NE TO THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA...CROSSING BETWEEN THE CANARY/CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR