000 AXNT20 KNHC 021712 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 200 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. SOME OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 13W-19W SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS FORMED OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING SUB-TROPICAL JET. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS THE AREA W OF 84W S OF 26N...THICKEST IN THE EXTREME SWRN GULF. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OFF THE MEXICAN COASTLINE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 95W-98W. AT THE SFC...A 1022 MB HIGH OVER S CAROLINA IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND E/SE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH THRU THE GULF ALONG 35N81W 26N86W 15N88W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXISTS N OF 26N DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOME RETURN FLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE NW GULF AND THEN FEEDS INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. AND LIFTED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK TROUGH LIES ALONG 95W FROM 16N-20N OVER S MEXICO TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF S MEXICO AND THE EPAC. THE SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH SAG SWD AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA TOMORROW. CONTINUED FAIR AND WARM/HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER S/SE RETURN FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK UPPER RIDGING LIES OVER N S AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NWD FROM CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE STAYING S OF 17N. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ELSEWHERE. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED S OF HAITI ALONG 74W FROM 14N-18W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING ATLC COLD FRONT INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING NWD ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS NW OF THE AREA. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. THE ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT SOME REMNANT MOISTURE WILL HANG IN THE E CARIBBEAN THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC MOTION WITH TWO EMBEDDED SFC LOWS COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC W OF 50W. A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 36N63W AND A 1007 MB LOW IS 250 NM TO THE SW NEAR 32N65W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE N AND E OF THE LOWS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1006 MB LOW AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N56W 24N58W 21N62W THEN AS A SFC TROUGH TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...CAUSED BY SFC FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF AN UPPER JET AXIS...EXTENDS 400 NM TO THE E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH MOISTURE THINNING S OF THERE. GFS FORECASTS THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WEEK. FARTHER EAST...SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE PATTERN WITH A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N41W AND SFC RIDGING EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE HIGH ALONG 34N41W 20N25W 13N17W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS UNDER HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER S AMERICA AND CARRYING TO THE COAST OF AFRICA . THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE SE OF A LINE ALONG 13N60W 20N30W 27N14W. A 1007 MB LOW LIES S OF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 36N8W WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WSW TO 31N20W. BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW. $$ CANGIALOSI