000
AXNT20 KNHC 021020
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W 1N50W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-11W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W-25W...FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 
29W-32W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-43W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-6N 
BETWEEN 48W-55W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 37N79W.  A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS S TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W.   WARM 
10-15 KT SELY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 
94W-96W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
GULF.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF 
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING E.  EXPECT 
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO BY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE FAIR WEATHER.  ELSEWHERE...SELY 
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO AND THE 
WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TAMPICO. 
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 
60W-74W.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY ALL AROUND THE ISLAND OF 
PUERTO RICO.  ELSEWHERE... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. TRADEWINDS 
ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 10N.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT ALONG THE N COAST OF 
S AMERICA S OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-78W.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO 
EXPECT THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W.  A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS S TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 30N56W 25N58W 18N65W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF FRONT FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 50W-55W.  
A 1028 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N45W.  A SURFACE RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N35W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
THE CANARY ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE 
AREA.  A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
10W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CANARY 
ISLANDS NEAR 30N18W.  IN THE TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 
10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W... WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N 
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DRIFT 
E AND MAINTAIN CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT. 

$$
FORMOSA