000 AXNT20 KNHC 020516 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 34W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 10121 MB HIGH OVER N GEORGIA IS PRODUCING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WARM 10-15 KT SELY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 92W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING E. EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...SELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO AND THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TAMPICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 60W-74W. SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS OFFSHORE E AND S OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 73W-78W. TRADEWINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 10N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA S OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-78W. EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 30N58W 24N58W 18N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N35W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG . IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-50W. AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N18W. IN THE TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W... WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E AND MAINTAIN CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT. $$ FORMOSA