000 AXNT20 KNHC 020007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N12W 3N20W 1N30W 2N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE WELL-DEFINED DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAVE LOST THEIR DEFINITION AND THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND DISAPPEARED. THE PROMINENT RIDGE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE GULF HAS WEAKENED AND ANYTHING LEFT FROM IT EITHER IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND/OR ALREADY HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 24N97W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH REACHES 17N66W JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 28N58W 22N60W 18N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N68W 18N66W 20N65W...AND 20N69W 19N71W 17N72W 16N73W. THE GFS 500 MB MODEL INFORMATION SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH MAY BE IN THE AREA OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. EXPECT AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE STARTS OUT AT THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 4N8W AND EXTENDS TO 6N34W...CONTINUING TO 8N56W...EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF 13N EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA-TO-EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE STARTS OUT AT THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 4N8W AND EXTENDS TO 6N34W...CONTINUING TO 8N56W...EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW CENTER OF 24 HOURS AGO HAVE NOT GONE AWAY YET. THE LOW APPEARS NEAR 32N62W...MUCH MORE STRETCHED OUT AND NOT AS BEAUTIFUL-LOOKING AS YESTERDAY'S VERSION. THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N64W. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 28N58W 22N60W 18N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 64W. BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 32N62W LOW CENTER AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N25W. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW TO 32N14W...AND ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N22W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE IS NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N21W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO 22N38W. $$ MT