000 AXNT20 KNHC 011747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W EQ50W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WARM 10-15 KT SELY FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N-98W TO 24N-92W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE GULF...INCLUDING ALSO MOST OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NE OVER THE REGION. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW LEVELS CLOUDS STRETCHES FROM HISPANIOLA ENE CROSSING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PUERTO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS... PARTICULARLY ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST VENEZUELA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 66W-69W. TRADEWINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...WHILE THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT MAINLY OVER THE SE CORNER. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OF NOTE...TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND WETTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR IN PUERTO RICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1007 MB STORM LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED A VERY WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM 31N60W TO JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF FRONT FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 54W-56W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N46W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 16N40W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 27N-24W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 17N-31W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 42W-52W. ANOTHER BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 28N24W. WLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS NEWARD WEST OF 40W. A JETSTREAM OF 90-130 KT IS SE OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE E ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM 20N-35W ENE TO INLAND IN WESTERN AFRICA NEAR 26N-12W. $$ GR