000
AXNT20 KNHC 291019
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N1W 4N20W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA 
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-23W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 24W-30W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 35W-41W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 46W-52W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER FLORIDA ALONG 80W.  WINDS 
ARE FROM THE E TO SE 15-20 KT E OF 87W...WHILE A TIGHTER 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE W GULF 
OF MEXICO W OF 87W.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 91W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE N GULF N OF 26N.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT A SURFACE 
LOW PRESENTLY OVER N TEXAS NEAR 34N98W TO EXTEND A COLD FRONT TO 
THE TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION.  THE FRONT 
WILL MOVE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF BY SUNDAY 
NIGHT WITH CONVECTION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS TO E 
CUBA ALONG 22N72W 21N77W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA IS IN FACT VOID OF ANY CONVECTION.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW 
VENEZUELA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 71W-77W. TRADEWINDS ARE RELATIVELY 
LIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE N COLOMBIA COAST.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WHILE THE BASE OF A 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 12N 
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 
SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
NOTED MOVING NE.  EXPECT N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO HAVE THE 
GREATEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION AND SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1006 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N67W.  A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS S TO E CUBA ALONG 32N65W 25N68W 21N77W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 65W-67W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT N OF 23N.  A 1031 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 39N42W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 
62W-80W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 60W-62W.  A 
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-62W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
30W-55W. IN THE TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 
10W-50W... WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W. 

$$
FORMOSA