000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W EQ35W EQ50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 
7W-13W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 8W-11W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 14W-19W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 35W-37W...AND FROM EQ-2N 
BETWEEN 43W-45W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 26N90W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OF 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  10-15 N WINDS ARE N OF THE 
FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SELY FLOW AND 
FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 95W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF FROM 20N-30N 
BETWEEN 90W-110W.  THE E GULF E OF 90W HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE TO CUBA AND THE W ATLANTIC 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND 
N COLOMBIA TO INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 
71W-74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER N 
COLOMBIA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 75W-77W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE 
E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W ESPECIALLY THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO 
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO AND 
GUATEMALA.  THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA HAS ZONAL WLY FLOW.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S 
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N.  SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 13N.  EXPECT THE TAIL 
END OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER S CUBA SATURDAY MORNING WITH 
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION.        

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 29N75W 26N80W. 
A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE N 
BAHAMAS FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 75W-77W.  A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 38N41W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A PLUME OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 24N BETWEEN 67W-71W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. IN THE 
TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W... 
WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.       

$$
FORMOSA