000 AXNT20 KNHC 261051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 5N8W 3N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 39W...TO 1S50W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 12W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN A RIDGE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...ALL THE WAY TO EAST TEXAS. THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR IS COLLIDING WITH A TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS COLD FRONT...WHICH COMES FROM AN UPPER TEXAS 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MEXICO...CONTRIBUTING A BIT MORE TO THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING UP A COMPARATIVELY SMALLER AMOUNT OF SPACE NOW THAN THEY WERE TAKING UP 8 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NOW ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 24.5N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 75W TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA AFTER PASSING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A NARROW TROUGH HAS SQUEEZED ITSELF INTO THE PICTURE...FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THEN ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CROSSES COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND ORIGINATES A BIT ALSO IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN JUST CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS... RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. YESTERDAY'S TROUGH WHICH REACHED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...NOW ALONG 32N56W 21N55W 17N55W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 11N68W 20N75W IS COVERED IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BIG RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA SPILLS OVER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO 32N56W 21N55W 17N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N47W TO 26N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH FROM THE LAST WEEK NOW COVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD/ STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO... PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 26N40W 24N50W 20N60W TO THE EASTERN SHORES OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MOROCCO AND 60W. $$ MT