000
AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N10W 5N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 25W...TO 1S30W 3S40W 
3S45W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 
2N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND 
12W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN A RIDGE CONTINUES 
TO STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO 
TO 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTH 
TEXAS BARELY INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC OCEAN 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES INTERIOR 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND HEADS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TROUGH
SQUEEZES ITSELF INTO THE PICTURE...FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CROSSES COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA...AND ORIGINATES A BIT ALSO IN COLOMBIA...AND 
THEN JUST CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...RIGHT ON TOP OF THE 
FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BASE OF 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD...
NOW ALONG 60W FROM 20N AND BEYOND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
FOUND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA IS SOUTHWEST OF 12N64W 
13N71W...19N71W. THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED MIDDLE TO UPPER 
DRY AIR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BIG RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA SPILLS OVER INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BRINGING WITH IT AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS NO IS JUST 
EAST OF THE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WATERS...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO. A SURFACE 
RIDGE
RUNS FROM 28N62W TO 26N75W TO 27N89W. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER
AND TROUGH COVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A COLD FRONT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES 
FROM
26N40W TO 24N50W TO 21N60W TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF PUERTO RICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION 
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF THIS 
TROUGH...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE 
MOROCCO TROUGH AND 60W.

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MT