000 AXNT20 KNHC 250621 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 24W TO 2S30W 2S40W 2S43W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 3W AND 6W...WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 8W AND 12W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR...SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW...CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO 100W. A SECOND AND DISTINCT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W. SEPARATING THESE TWO AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR LINE ALONG 28N95W 22N96W TO A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 15N96W AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ONE BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND BRANCH RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND HEADS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CROSSES COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND ORIGINATES A BIT ALSO IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN JUST CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS... RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO IS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EAST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SEEN NOW IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN HAITI. LOW CLOUDS...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ARE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND. THE SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE FOUND FROM EL SALVADOR TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND IN MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE DEVELOPING 15N96W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE...SPILLS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 68W...AND WEST OF THE TROUGH WHOSE BASE WAS ON TOP OF THE GREATER ANTILLES YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED DURING THE LAST 16 TO 24 HOURS...NOW THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N61W 19N62W 15N67W. THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO NOW REACHES 26N46W AFTER PASSING THROUGH 32N41W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 27N40W TO 25N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N44W TO 23N50W AND 20N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N36W TO 29N40W TO 24N50W TO 20N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE 30N9W 20N28W TROUGH FROM MOROCCO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND 60W. $$ MT