000 AXNT20 KNHC 240624 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W...REACHING THE EQUATOR AT 48W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AIR IS HELPING TO FUEL THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS... EXCEPT FOR THE AREA FROM 150 NM TO 200 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN 28N86W AND 21N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 30N77W TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W TO 27N88W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N88W TO 28N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N85W ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN 24/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...AWAY FROM NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST ALL THE CARIBBEAN WATERS... EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF 15N WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA...AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 82W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 74W...MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSES 20N59W TO 19N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N62W TO PUERTO RICO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE WEST CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG THE BORDER WITH HAITI. PERIODICAL ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 67W AND 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 16 HOURS AGO...REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW IS ALONG 19N72W 28N69W BEYOND 32N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 20N. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO... PROBABLY HELPING TO ADD SOME ENERGY TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 32N68W 19N72W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH COVER THE WEATHER NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 24N50W TO 20N59W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH WAS ABOUT 275 NM SOUTH OF THE PORTUGAL COAST 16 HOURS AGO FINALLY MOVED INLAND IN NORTHERN MOROCCO. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 19N31W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 32W. THE GALE CENTER FROM 16 HOURS AGO MOVED INLAND ALSO. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N27W TO 27N35W AND 23N46W. $$ MT