000
AXNT20 KNHC 231738
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 2N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-4N 
BETWEEN 5W-11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N 
BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 33W-35W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA 
FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 48W-51W.      

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH TO ST PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO THE E GULF 
OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH 
THE FRONT...NOR IS THERE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP.  MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH ONLY 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS W OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY 
NWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF DUE TO A RIDGE.  RIDGE AXIS IS OVER 
TEXAS AND MEXICO ALONG 98W MOVING E.  A NEW INFLUX OF PACIFIC 
MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 94W.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE 
FRONT TO DRIFT TO THE W ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL HAVE LIGHT SELY WINDS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 14N AND E 
OF 80W.   10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.  AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW COLOMBIA AND 
E PANAMA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 75W-79W TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF 
URABA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S 
BELIZE.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS N OF 16N AND E OF 73W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA...PUERTO 
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  SAN JUAN RADAR DEPICTS STRONGEST 
SHOWERS S OF THE ISLAND.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NWLY FLOW IS 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W.  WLY 
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL OF 
CONVECTION TO BE OVER NW COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA ...AND 
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO NEAR COCOA 
BEACH FLORIDA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-77W.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 32N65W.  THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N43W 21N54W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES 
NEAR 37N28W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 
27N38W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
N OF 24N BETWEEN 65W-77W.  MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 30W-65W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N 
BETWEEN 1W-30W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF 
MOROCCO NEAR 32N9W.  IN THE DEEP TROPICS... ELY FLOW IS FROM 
EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH BOTH 
ATLANTIC FRONTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

$$
FORMOSA