000 AXNT20 KNHC 230936 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 9N11W 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W...TO 1S40W AND 1S50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 2W AND 5W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 8W AND 11W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 5S TO 6S BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 7S TO 7N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE AREA OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N118W AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH WHICH ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW CENTER DIGS TO THE SOUTH ALONG 33N118W 28N117W 22N112W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MOVES INLAND OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OVER INTERIOR MEXICO MORE OR LESS ALONG 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THIS RIDGE...PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N99W 26N101W 29N102W...ALL THE WAY INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR 35N102W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. OUTFLOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES 90W IN THE GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE REST OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE FLOW CHANGES ONCE IT REACHES FLORIDA...AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO 27N84W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 27N84W AND CONTINUES TO 23N88W. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF SUNDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN 23/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST ALL THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ITCZ THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOWERS FROM CURRENTLY ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EL SALVADOR NEAR 12N TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17N BETWEEN 87W IN HONDURAS AND 94W IN MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 74W...MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH EXISTED EARLY FROM CUBA TO PUERTO RICO HAS ENDED. IT IS POSSIBLE THE BAHAMAS TROUGH MAY DIG A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY RE-GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE GREATER ANTILLES...COMBINING WITH WHATEVER REMNANT INSTABILITY THAT MAY EXIST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 23N75W BAHAMAS TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE IS IN PLACE BETWEEN 60W AND THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N67W. A RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO PUERTO RICO. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC EAST OF 60W...STILL IN ACCORD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER/TROUGH WITH A 1003 MB GALE CENTER WAY NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N54W...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N50W TO 18N57W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 24N49W TO 17N48W...AND THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS AT A LOW CENTER NEAR 33N9W...ABOUT 275 NM SOUTH OF THE PORTUGAL COAST...CONTINUING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 18N29W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 18N EAST OF 32W. A 1005 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 33N9W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES 1028 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 38N28W TO 30N35W 18N45W. $$ MT