000 AXNT20 KNHC 230549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 9N11W 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W...TO 1S40W AND 1S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7S TO 8N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH WHICH ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE LINE 34N120W...FOR THE LOW CENTER...TO 28N117W TO 20N113W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MOVES INLAND OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OVER INTERIOR MEXICO MORE OR LESS ALONG 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THIS RIDGE...PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N99W 25N101W 28N103W...ALL THE WAY INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR 35N102W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. OUTFLOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES 93W IN THE GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE REST OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE FLOW CHANGES ONCE REACH FLORIDA...AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE AREA OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LAKE AREA TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 29N79W AND BEYOND 32N77W. THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION IS ABOUT 120 NM WIDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF SUNDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN 23/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT ITCZ THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...AND A FEW CLUSTERS IN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOWERS FROM CURRENTLY ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N BETWEEN 86W IN HONDURAS AND 93W IN MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 14N...MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY IN CLOUDINESS WHICH ALREADY HAS CLEARED THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...AND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE REMAINING PRECIPITATION HAVE TO DO WITH SOME LEFTOVER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS LEFT BY THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA/ NORTHERN BAHAMAS TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE IS IN PLACE BETWEEN 60W AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N67W. A RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 27N66W TO 21N64W. THE FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC EAST OF 60W...STILL IN ACCORD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER/TROUGH WITH A GALE CENTER WAY NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N54W...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N50W TO 20N55W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 20N49W... AND THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS AT A LOW CENTER NEAR 34N10W...ABOUT 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE PORTUGAL COAST...AND CONTINUES TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N30W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 32W. A 1004 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 34N10W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES 1031 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 38N27W TO 33N34W 28N40W 20N43W. $$ MT