000
AXNT20 KNHC 221101
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N11W 3N20W 1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 38W...2S46W AT THE 
BRAZIL COAST. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXISTS IN THE GULF
WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA
AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
28N89W...JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
LOUISIANA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W BEYOND 32N84W 
IN WESTERN GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN COASTAL MEXICO HAS 
BEEN ENDING. THE WESTERN GULF WATERS MAY BE COVERED WITH SOME 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WEST OF 90W...AFTER THE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS DIED OR HAVE BEEN DYING. A FEW MORE CELLS OF 
PRECIPITATION STRETCH FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO ABOUT 
NORTHERN HONDURAS TO NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. A SURFACE RIDGE
POKES ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS FROM AN ATLANTIC 
1025 MB NEAR 32N69W TO 27N76W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N86W
IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WILL MOVE SEWD AND WILL BE 
LOCATED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO 26N89W IN 24 HOURS. THE TAIL 
END OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND PULL NORTH OF THE 
AREA. THE FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT BUT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE GULF COAST. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE EPAC OFF THE W COAST OF 
NICARAGUA NEAR 15N88W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PREVAILING 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE AREA. TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE 
YESTERDAY WITH A FEW TRADE WINDS SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS THE 
SEA. THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 65W 
AND 70W ARE AT THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH.
NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. 
TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME MORE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA.
     
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BASICALLY A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE 
ATLANTIC BASIN. NARROW AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING STRETCHES FROM 
THE BAHAMAS TO THE NE U.S. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N48W TO
28N50W TO 20N53W TO 17N55W. ONE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1031 MB AZORES
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 39N29W TO 27N39W 22N48W 13N50W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH 
OF 23N WEST OF THE 31N48W 17N55W TROUGH. DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE 
AND A TROUGH COVER THE THE AREA NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 
67W. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N49W 
29N46W BEYOND 32N45W.  TSTMS FROM WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 24N52W 28N48W BEYOND 32N46W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 16N47W TO 23N45W
BEYOND 32N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE PORTUGAL COAST TO 32N23W TO 24N29W.

$$
MT