000
AXNT20 KNHC 220605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 38W...2S45W AT THE 
BRAZIL COAST. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXISTS IN THE GULF
WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OVER TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT IN A LINE ANY 
MORE...SOME ARE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RUN FROM SOUTHEASTERN 
MEXICO TO 20N100W...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FROM 30N100W
TO 25N98W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES FAIR 
TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME BROKEN 
CLOUD COVER W OF 93W N OF 23N AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER 
TEXAS. LIGHT S/SSW SFC WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AS 
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN THE W ATLC. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER 
THE S CENTRAL U.S. WITH MOVE SEWD AND WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE 
FL PANHANDLE TO 26N89W IN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TAIL END OF 
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND PULL N OF THE AREA. THE 
FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT BUT THE MAJORITY OF 
THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE EPAC OFF THE W COAST OF 
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N91W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PREVAILING 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE AREA. TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE 
YESTERDAY WITH A FEW TRADE WINDS SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS THE 
SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION THRU 
THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME MORE ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
     
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BASICALLY A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE 
ATLANTIC BASIN. NARROW AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING STRETCHES FROM 
THE BAHAMAS TO THE NE U.S. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N49W TO 29N51W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 29N51W TO
22N57W TO 22N60W. ONE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1032 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 39N29W TO 30N37W 24N45W 17N51W. HIGH PRESSURE IS AROUND
A 1023 AT THE SFC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N71W.
A DEEP-LAYERED LOW SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP 
UPPER TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM 50W-70W N OF 22N. A SWLY JET 
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS FROM WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N52W 28N48W
BEYOND 32N46W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE 
STRETCHES FROM 17N45W TO BEYOND 32N45W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES E 
OF 28W N OF 22N. DRY/STABLE AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE E ATLC.  

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MT