000 AXNT20 KNHC 190628 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N12W 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N13W 3N23W...AND WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE 3N23W 1S31W 2S44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N103W 27N99W 32N96W FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS FLOW EVENTUALLY FLATTENS OUT IN ORDER TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS FLOW IS MET BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS RUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD...FROM ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE 32N63W 23N61W TROUGH NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. THE 32N63W 23N61W TROUGH SUPPORTS THE EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS SWEEPING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N70W TO 27N76W BEYOND 31N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N61W 31N58W BEYOND 33N57W. THE REST OF THE FRONTAL AREA WEST OF 64W IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WEDGED INTO THIS DRY AIR FIELD FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 78W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 12N76W JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE NORTH OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 22N46W 27N44W BEYOND 32N42W IS JUST WEST OF ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWS US A RIDGE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 35N26W TO 30N32W 26N39W 20N52W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W...TO A 1014 MB SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N76W...TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF CUBA NEAR 24N83W...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ITS BASE NEAR 25N27W NORTHEASTWARD...IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WATER AREAS IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...BEYOND 33N12W. $$ MT