000 AXNT20 KNHC 181057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 18 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 2N26W 2N30W 2N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W...TO 1S53W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 15W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N18W 4N25W 3N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5S BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF IS ON THE N/NW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ONLY ALLOWING SOME SCATTERED SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE S/SW FLOW WARMED THE TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...IN FACT OVER 100 DEGREE F TEMPS WERE FOUND IN PARTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS YESTERDAY. FAIR AND WARM/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE CAROLINAS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS A BACK-DOOR FRONT AND BE MAINLY IN THE ATLC. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT MAY EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE GFS 24-HOUR POSITION DRAPES THE FRONT NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEREAFTER THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO SAG A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY NIGH AND THURSDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N81W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ON THE RETURN FLOW OF THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE EPAC ACROSS PANAMA AND NICARAGUA. THIS MOISTURE DRIES UP VERY QUICKLY AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA. ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE... SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE...LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NAMELY FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 50W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA. WEAK SFC RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING THE TRADES FAIRLY LIGHT. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THRU THU UNTIL A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC HIGH DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA. WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE W/CNTRL ATLANTIC WITH A DEEP-LAYERED OCCLUDED LOW WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N45W TO 22N50W TO 20N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THIS DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG 20N44W BEYOND 32N29W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N42W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NEWD TO 22N28W. PLENTY OF DRY/STABLE AIR LIES FROM 10N-20N EAST OF 35W. SAHARAN DUST WAS WIDESPREAD EAST OF 30W BETWEEN 10N-20N WITH YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC AND BUILD WESTWARD THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ MT