000 AXNT20 KNHC 170539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N12W 4N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...THE EQUATOR AT 45W...AND TO 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5S TO 2N BETWEEN 31W AND 45W...AND FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 53W... THE SOUTHERN POINT OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 30N128W. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS TOWARD INTERIOR MEXICO...BECOMING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE IN INTERIOR MEXICO. A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN EAST CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MOVING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROMINENT TO THE EAST OF THE MEXICO LOW CENTER...FROM 25N91W TO 28N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...BEYOND 32N74W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N60W 20N67W 13N79W. A SEPARATE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD...AS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 27N53W TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N66W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 24N79W...NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 27N87W AND 27N94W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM 22N TO 28N...THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 82W...AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N47W 22N60W 19N70W. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD DROP MORE TO THE SOUTH... CAUSING WESTERLY WINDS OVER A GOOD PART OF FLORIDA AND LIKELY HEATING UP THE EAST COAST OF THE STATE TO THE DREADED 90 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT MARK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ALL THE WAY FROM THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 100W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REACHING 25N91W. SOME OF THIS FLOW SPLITS OFF AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...WHILE THE REST OF IT JUST GOES NORTHWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N60W 20N67W 13N79W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM 22N TO 28N...THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 82W...AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N47W 22N60W 19N70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N52W TO 28N53W TO 23N55W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA IN WHICH THE STATIONARY FRONT...FOR THE LAST WEEK OR MORE...HAS BEEN POSITIONED...THROUGH 32N44W TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 29N46W TO A 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 25N50W...WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING FROM THIS LOW TO 19N57W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 19N57W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 14N63W. IT IS MORE PROBABLE THAT THE INITIAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY HAS MOVED EASTWARD, AND MAY RECEIVE ENERGY FROM THIS 33N52W 23N55W TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS ALONG 23W/24W NORTH OF 26N. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE 33N52W 23N55W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 14N58W TO 17N50W TO 24N38W TO 28N33W BEYOND 32N27W. $$ MT