000
AXNT20 KNHC 162306
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 2N30W EQ40W INTO S AMERICA NEAR 1N52W.  
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 20W-26W AND WITHIN 75 
NM OF 1.5N16.5W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS S OF A LINE FROM 
5N51W 2N43W 1.5N31W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH FEW CLOUDS.  
MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ALL BUT THE EXTREME SW PORTION OF 
THE AREA AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SE MEXICO... HELPING TO 
FIRE A FEW INLAND TSTMS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CAUSING QUITE DRY 
CONDITIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
IN THE AREA.  JUST A FEW LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE TX/LA 
COASTS AND IN THE E-CENTRAL GULF.  NO BIG CHANGES ARE LIKELY FOR 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD NUDGE INTO THE 
NW GULF ON WED.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD DROP MORE 
TO THE SOUTH... CAUSING WLY WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF FLORIDA 
AND LIKELY HEATING UP THE E COAST OF THE STATE TO THE DREADED 
90F MARK.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTROLS THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE NE PART 
WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE 
SUBSIDENCE NOTED ABOVE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND IS 
STRONGEST N OF ABOUT 18N.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO 
THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING DEWPOINTS BELOW 
70F.  A FEW ENHANCED SHOWER AREAS REMAIN NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS 
AND LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND BARBADOS... OTHERWISE 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE THE RULE.  TRADES HAVE RECOVERED IN THE 
FAR NW CARIBBEAN BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THEY 
ARE FULLY RESTORED IN THE REST OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAKNESS 
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAXIMIZES TUE/WED.  
MORE TYPICAL SHOWER/TSTMS ARE LIKELY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS 
UPPER RIDGING SETTLES OVERHEAD. 

ATLANTIC...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE 
AREA.  FIRST TROUGH IS DIVING THRU THE W & CENTRAL ATLC FROM 
31N55W SW TO NEAR PUERTO RICO.  PAIR OF LOWS IS ALONG AN 
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 20N57W WITH A 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 28.5N46.5W AND A WEAKER 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N50W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 51W 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE.  
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH 
A BROAD 1018 MB CENTER JUST NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  TO THE 
E... ANOMALOUSLY-STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTROLS THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEWARD THRU THE E-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH BROAD RIDE FROM 
4N51W TO 30N30W.  RIDGE IS QUITE AMPLIFIED AND RESEMBLES A 
PATTERN MORE LIKELY SEEN IN THE DEEP TROPICS CLOSER TO HURRICANE 
SEASON.  HIGH CLOUDS ARE A PLENTY ON THE N EDGE OF THE RIDGE N 
OF 22N E OF 40W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET OUTSIDE OF THE 
ITCZ.  IN THE E ATLC.. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST 
OF AFRICA SOUTHWARD TO 2N21W ASSISTING DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT 
IN GUINEA.  AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN THIS WEEK AS MORE 
TYPICAL MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE AREA.    HIGH 
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE NE ATLC WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES E OF 40W.  

$$
BLAKE