000 AXNT20 KNHC 160526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N10W 1N35W INTO S AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 40W AND W OF 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. MID/UPPER RIDGING IS GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. AS SUCH...SHOWERS ARE SCARCE WITH NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE... 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC LATER TODAY WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRAILING WESTWARD FROM S FLORIDA TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEEK UNTIL A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC DROPS SWD AFFECTING FLORIDA TUE AND WED. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG WEATHER MAKER AT THIS POINT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH S EXTENT AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO BELIZE. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AN E/W ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWD AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM S AMERICA IS PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WATERS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER THE ATLC. OWING TO A WEAKER THAN USUAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ELY TRADES ARE RATHER WEAK IN THE CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC EARLY IN WORK WEEK. ATLC... A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A TROUGH W OF 50W AND RIDGE E OF 50W. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM 32N45W TO 23N55W. THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS OF THE THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 40W AND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED FURTHER S WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WHICH TRAILS SWD TO PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS IT PUSHES SEWD INTO THE E ATLC. ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC. OVER THE E ATLC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE AZORES TO 19N50W IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE TRADES ESPECIALLY E OF 40W. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N50W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING E/W FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA NEAR DAKAR. STRONG MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IS KEEPING THE ITCZ RATHER INACTIVE. A STRONG W AFRICAN DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE E ATLANTIC WATERS BUT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS $$ RHOME