000
AXNT20 KNHC 152333
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 3N40W 3N51W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION S OF 3.5N BETWEEN 22W-40W.  A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF 4.5N52W AS WELL.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE OF TAMPA CONTROLLING THE REGION.  STRONG 
SLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE 
HIGH PLAINS.  PLEASANT FALL WEATHER COVERS THE AREA AND 
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE NRN GULF WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE 
CAUSING QUITE DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE 
EASTWARD.. BLANKETING THE AREA WITH WARM SLY WINDS... SHIFTING 
TO A GENERAL WLY CURRENT OVER FLORIDA.  IT LOOKS QUITE WARM FOR 
THE E COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD 
FRONT EDGES IN FOR WED.  

ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 48W AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES 
TO PUSH EASTWARD.  ASSOCIATED 1008 MB IS NEAR 27N52W ALONG A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS NE TO 30N48W.  A FORMING COLD 
FRONT IS S OF THE LOW TO 23N57W WITH A TROUGH THEREAFTER TO THE 
NE TIP OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  W OF THE LOW/FRONTS... DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER NICE.  HOWEVER 
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM N OF 26N W OF 40W.  
LOW SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW AND REMAIN EXTRATROPICAL 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  RAIN CHANCES SHOULD 
DIMINISH TOMORROW IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER ENERGY 
SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.  ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL S 
OF GUADELOUPE SW TO THE ABC ISLANDS WITH EXTRA MOISTURE IN THE 
AREA FROM A WEAK TROUGH.  TRADES ARE RATHER WEAK IN THE 
CARIBBEAN BUT SHOULD BE PICKING UP TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN THE W ATLC BEHIND THE LOW.  LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH 
CONTROLS THE WEATHER OTHERWISE WITH LOTS OF CIRRUS IN THE SE 
CARIBBEAN.  

REMAINDER ATLC...
LARGE WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER 
THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N50W.  HIGH IS EXTREMELY FAR TO THE N 
COMPARED TO AVERAGE.   STRONG MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING 
THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE DRY ALOFT.  ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM 
THE HIGH TO 31N47W WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC TO 8N30W.  FARTHER NE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN 
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS 
SOUTHWARD THRU THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF 19N22W N OF THE CAPE VERDES.  OTHERWISE 
A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH N 
OF 15N ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NE ATLC.  JUST A FEW 
STRATOCUMULUS CLUSTERS ARE MOVING THRU THE TROPICAL ATLC.  HIGH 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE E ATLC... WHICH SHOULD 
INCREASE THE TRADES ESPECIALLY E OF 40W AS LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE 
PRESSURES GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE W ATLC.  

$$
BLAKE