000 AXNT20 KNHC 150613 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 7N8W 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W 2N44W 1S47W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 12W OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N27W 3N31W 3N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W...AND FROM 1S TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ONE LINE OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG 89W NORTH OF 24N. ANOTHER SUCH LINE OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG 94/96W NORTH OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N66W TO 29N73W TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N86W...TO 25N94W AND 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AT 72 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY REACH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W... THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN APPROACHING MASS OF DRY AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL U.S.A HELPED TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...MORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER AND TROUGH WHICH WERE PERSISTENT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W ONLY 48 HOURS AGO. THE REMNANT OF THAT TROUGH IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED EITHER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OR CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 15/0300 UTC. AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE COVERS PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 92W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CUT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA AND SOUTH OF THERE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXIT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO COME FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THEY CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY IN ACCORD WITH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE ALONG 10N26W 11N42W 13N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N65W...250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...TO JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES JUST NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 12N69W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 10N50W. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE QUITE DRY IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 20W WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ONLY PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS ARE FOUND. $$ MT