000 AXNT20 KNHC 142344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 2N30W 4N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 24W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN AROUND 100 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS...THANKS TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF AND A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF NEAR 29N-87W... KEEPING THE WEATHER QUITE NICE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING SW WIND FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS NEAR 24N-63W. THESE LOWS ARE ATTACHED TO A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS NEWD TO 29N52W CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N62W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W SSW BETWEEN BONAIRE AND CURACAO. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER S IN THE CARIBBEAN...WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS SITTING JUST SSW OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N79W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO 19N87W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREAS FROM HONDURAS NW THRU BELIZE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ACCORDING TO THE MODELS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 10N-50W. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE QUITE DRY IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N WITH LIMITED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER TROUGH CONTROLS THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST PAST THE CAPE VERDES. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 20W THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS QUITE LIMITED AND NEAR 30N10W. ONLY PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS ARE IN THE REGION. A SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NEAR 39W SOUTH OF 15N. $$ GR