000 AXNT20 KNHC 141704 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N25W 4N42W 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 1N-4N FROM 19W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REGION AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTROLS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PERSISTS N OF 22N. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.. OTHERWISE A 1021 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE OF MOBILE ALABAMA IS KEEPING THE WEATHER QUITE NICE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INCREASE THE HUMIDITIES OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING NE FLORIDA ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50WA AND CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS FROM S OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N65W SW ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 13N81W. 1009 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W BUT REMAINS ATTACHED TO A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS NE OUT OF THE LOW TO 26N57W CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT TO 31N50W. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 55W-65W WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW. A 60/75 NM WIDE LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDS FROM 21N61W THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N64W SSW TO NEAR CURACAO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE WITH ST THOMAS RECORDING OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWARD AS IT FOLLOWS THE UPPER LOW'S BEST LIFT... OR PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NE. FARTHER S IN THE CARIBBEAN...WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS SITTING JUST SSW OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO 19N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH W OF 81W ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE LOW. FARTHER S... CONDITIONS ARE VERY QUIET WITH VIRTUALLY NO TRADES DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREAS FROM HONDURAS NW THRU BELIZE LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ISLANDS AROUND THE ANTIGUA AREA FOR SAT PERHAPS NEAR GUADELOUPE BY SUN. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE ABC ISLANDS. REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NE S AMERICA NEAR 6N57W TO 31N42W. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE QUITE DRY IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N WITH LIMITED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER TROUGH CONTROLS THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST PAST THE CAPE VERDES. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 20W THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS QUITE LIMITED AND NEAR 30N10W. ONLY PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS ARE IN THE REGION WITH A WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE ATLC RIDGE DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGHING. OTHERWISE A SMALL SURGE IN MOISTURE IS ALONG ABOUT 38W S OF 14N PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOISTURE COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUE BUT THAT IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ITCZ CONVECTION IS FAIRLY ACTIVE S OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING IN THE W ATLC WITH PLENTY OF DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW OVER THE ITCZ. $$ BLAKE