000 AXNT20 KNHC 141122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W EQ50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS E OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR IS BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF. THERE IS AN AREA OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE IS GETTING SQUEEZED OUT BY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE MS/AL COASTLINE NEAR 29N88W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION N OF 24N. A FEW BANDS OF CLOUDS AND WEAK SMALL SHOWERS ARE MOVING SWWD ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND THE STRAITS. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EWD AND WILL BE LOCATED E OF THE AREA BY SUN ALLOWING S/SW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE N GULF. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THRU THE WEEKEND. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 55W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STUCK ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 32N72W ACROSS CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N84W. A 1008 MB SFC LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING N OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NOW AS BEGUN TO MOVE NEWARD LOCATED NEAR 21N68W. THIS LOW SITS ON A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 37N52W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N49W 27N57W THEN STATIONARY TO THE LOW N OF HISPANIOLA. A SFC TROUGH DRAPES SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 16N70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AIDED BY SFC FORCING IS PRODUCING A WIDE SHIELD OF RAIN FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 53W-68W. THIS AREA OF RAIN WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LIFTING TO THE NE. SSWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DRAWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD FROM S AMERICA AND MOVING IT INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS STRONGEST. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH A ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUING TRACKING NEWARD TODAY AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. NELY WINDS FROM 15-20 KT ARE COMMON IN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA WHERE THE PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE GULF HIGH AND CARIBBEAN LOW IS THE TIGHTEST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 19N. TRADE WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE WEAK SFC PRES GRAD AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU SAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UNDER MID-UPPER RIDGING. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N48W TO BEYOND 32N50W. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC/NW CARIBBEAN IS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 23N W OF 48W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING NEAR 10N38W TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 34W-41W. GFS CARRIERS THIS FEATURE WWD FOR A DAY SO BEFORE DISSIPATING IT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N. THE 1011 MB SFC LOW LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS APPEARS TO NOW HAVE RACED TO THE NE AND DISSIPATED. AN 80-100 KT SWLY JET ORIGINATES TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 24N21W AND EXTENDS TO PORTUGAL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW AFRICA. A PATCH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER W AFRICA WITH PLENTY OF DRY/STABLE AIR LIMITING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 20W. $$ CANGIALOSI