000 AXNT20 KNHC 140536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1S45W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS W OF 21W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS E OF 21W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR IS BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF. THERE IS AN AREA OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE IS THINNING AND DRIFTING SWD OUT OF THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE MS/LA COASTLINE NEAR 29N89W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION N OF 25N. A FEW WEAK SMALL SHOWERS ARE MOVING SWWD ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND THE STRAITS. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EWD AND WILL BE LOCATED E OF THE AREA BY SUN ALLOWING S/SW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE N GULF. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THRU THE WEEKEND. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 55W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STUCK ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 32N72W TO THE NEAR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A 1008 MB SFC LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING N OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW SITS ON A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SFC TROUGH DRAPES SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 15N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SFC FORCING FROM THE LOW AND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A WIDE SHIELD OF RAIN FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 56W-70W. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED 150 NM OR SO TO THE EAST OF WHERE IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SSWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DRAWING MOISTURE NWD FROM S AMERICA AND MOVING IT INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS STRONGEST. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH A ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL NEWARD TODAY AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 19N. TRADE WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE WEAK SFC PRES GRAD AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU SAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC UNDER MID-UPPER RIDGING. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N50W TO BEYOND 32N53W. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC/NW CARIBBEAN IS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 23N W OF 50W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. AN 80-100 KT SWLY JET ORIGINATES TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS TO PORTUGAL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. A PATCH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING ENEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER W AFRICA WITH PLENTY OF DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR LIMITING LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 20W. $$ CANGIALOSI