000
AXNT20 KNHC 122355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W EQ40W 2S45W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE 
FOUND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-27W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF...WITH A 
AN UPPER HIGH AT MID LEVELS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N-101W. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE GULF. A CUT-OFF LOW 
CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF 
DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF AND THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE GULF 
WATERS...NORTHWEST OF 30N83W 25N86W 22N90W. AT THE SURFACE... 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. NO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED 
TO ENTER THE GULF TROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE 
MOVES E SAT THROUGH MON...SLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN 
GULF. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A TROUGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER N 
COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO 
RICO...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A 
STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
22N72W TO 30N60W AND BEYOND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE  
SAME LOW ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 73W IN THE W ATLANTIC. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS AND 
SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA FROM LAS TUNAS 
TO GUANTANAMO. MODERATE TO STRONG NELY FLOW BLOW JUST NORTH OF 
THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE NELY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTROLS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 
29N-33W IS OVER THE E ATLC. A 80-100 KT SWLY JET ORIGINATES TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS NEWD ALONG 25N-25W 
30N-20W AND BEYOND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY 
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER HIGH IS 
OVER W AFRICA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL/E 
ATLANTIC FROM 30W-50W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS NEAR 28N35W. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...MAINLY NORTH AND 
EAST OF THE CENTER. 

$$
GR