000
AXNT20 KNHC 121810
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N10W 4N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO 2S45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3S TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W...OVER
LAND AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 15W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
THE RIDGE THAT STRETCHED FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND 
BEYOND HAS SEEN ITS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION CHANGE TO MORE
OF SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ANGLE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS SWEPT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.S.A. AND PUSHED THE NORTHERN EXTENSION
OF THIS RIDGE EASTWARD ALSO...FROM GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE 
U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO
HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS 
POSSIBLE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...WHERE THE GFS HAS BEEN MAKING A FORECAST
OF A SURFACE LOW. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE RIDGE COVER THE
GULF WATERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 29N83W 24N89W 21N94W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONFLUENT LINES OF LOW CLOUDS...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND NORTH
OF 22N EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN THE AREA FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 77W 
AND 78W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TOWARD EASTERN
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS COMBINED FEATURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 68W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH 
OF 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY 
EAST OF THIS TROUGH/LOW CENTER. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N67W BEYOND 32N59W.
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
NEAR 22N73W TO 26N70W TO 30N64W AND BEYOND 32N60W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH RUNS FROM 17N70W TO 24N67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FOUND NORTH OF
15N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS SOUTH OF THE LINE 
FROM 16N60W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 15N78W TO 12N81W.
AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND MAXIMA PERSISTS AND HAS BEEN 
PERSISTING FOR THE LAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY 
WIND MAXIMA FLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO 
PANAMA STRAIGHT TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EVENTUALLY INTO 
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE
12/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA WEST OF 70W RANGE 
FROM 60 KT TO 90 KT...AND FROM 40 KT TO 60 KT EAST OF 70W. 

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 
20N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
IS NEAR 28N35W. A LOW CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 
28N35W. A TROUGH FROM THE WATER VAPOR LOW CENTER REACHES 17N37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN 28W AND 38W.

$$
MT