000 AXNT20 KNHC 121044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W EQ39W 2S45W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE SCATTERED WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM MAINLY TO THE S OF THE AXIS E OF 26W. WEAKENING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 2W S OF 5N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TILTED AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING EWD ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC TO LOUISIANA THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS IN THE E GULF PRODUCED BY CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS STABLE AIR IS ONLY ALLOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BASIN. A PLUME OF PACIFIC HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE NW GULF. DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAHAMAS IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRAD OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PRODUCING ENELY WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT...WITH STRONGER WINDS E OF THE AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU THE WEEK ALLOWING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER AXIS LIES FROM 32N70W ACROSS CUBA TO 19N80W. A 1012 MB SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE E BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWARD FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N61W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SURFACE FORCING IS GENERATING A SHIELD OF OVERCAST SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 63W-73W. THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY IS CAUSING ENHANCED LIFT. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED 50 NM OR SO NW OF THE LOW CENTER. LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND BUT MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS TO THE W OF THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WHICH LIES ALONG 70W FROM 16N-21N. THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING WWD OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT. THE TIGHT PRES GRAD CAUSED BY THE 1012 MB LOW AND A 1032 MB HIGH OFF THE NE US COAST IS CAUSING STIFF 25-30 KT E/ENE WINDS FROM FLORIDA TO 65W MAINLY BETWEEN 20N-28N. GFS KEEPS THE WEAK LOW MEANDERING N OF HISPANIOLA THRU FRI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY FLATTENING ON SAT. UNTIL THEN...RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD LATER TODAY AND ENCOMPASS THE E BAHAMAS TO PUERTO RICO SPREADING TO THE NE ACROSS THE W ATLC. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA...THE W BAHAMAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN THRU THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A MID-UPPER RIDGE RUNS ALONG 10N60W 25N55W 32N51W. A 1033 MB SFC HIGH IS DISTANT TO THE N OF THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N36W TO 18N43W. A SFC TROUGH MARKED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS ALONG 28N27W 28N34W 31N38W. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH AND NEAR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 90-110 KT SWLY JET ORIGINATES TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS NEWARD TO N AFRICA NEAR 32N10W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER W AFRICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF 5W S OF 5N. PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS ARE OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. TRADES ARE AT NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE E ATLC. GFS/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SWWARD...WILL PULL NEWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW OR SLIGHT RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC BY FRI/SAT. $$ CANGIALOSI