000 AXNT20 KNHC 120529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W EQ40W 2S45W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE SCATTERED WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS. A WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG 27W/28W S OF 7N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 2W S OF 3N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TILTED AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING EWD ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC TO LOUISIANA THRU THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS IN THE E GULF PRODUCED BY CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS STABLE AIR IS ONLY ALLOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BASIN. DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAHAMAS IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRAD OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PRODUCING ELY WINDS NEAR 20-25 KT...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE E OF THE AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU THE WEEK ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER AXIS LIES FROM 32N71W ACROSS CUBA TO 19N81W. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE E BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWARD FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N61W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SURFACE FORCING IS GENERATING A SHIELD OF OVERCAST SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 19N-32N BETWEEN 63W-73W. THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY IS CAUSING ENHANCED LIFT. A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1012 MB LOW. A PAIR OF SFC TROUGHS ARE ALSO ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONE ALONG 57W FROM 12N-16N AND THE OTHER ALONG 68W FROM 14N-19N. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND BUT THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS TO THE W OF THE ISLAND MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE TIGHT PRES GRAD IS CAUSING STIFF E WINDS FROM FLORIDA TO 67W MAINLY BETWEEN 21N-28N. GFS KEEPS THE WEAK LOW MEANDERING N OF HISPANIOLA THRU FRI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY FLATTENING ON SAT. AREAS OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SIMILAR LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY TO THE E OF TODAY...FROM E CUBA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES SPREADING TO THE NE ACROSS THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MESSY WEATHER WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA...THE W BAHAMAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN THRU THE WEEKEND. REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A MID-UPPER RIDGE RUNS ALONG 10N60W 25N55W 32N51W. A 1034 MB SFC HIGH IS DISTANT TO THE N OF THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N34W TO 18N40W. A WEAK U-SHAPED SFC TROUGH MARKED BY A LINE OF CLOUDS EXTENDS ALONG 31N23W 27N33W 30N39W. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. A 90-110 KT SWLY JET ORIGINATES TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS NEWARD TO N AFRICA NEAR 34N3W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER W AFRICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF 10W S OF 5N. PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS ARE OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. TRADES ARE AT NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE E ATLC. GFS/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL NEWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW OR SLIGHT RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC BY FRI/SAT. $$ CANGIALOSI